Reports, Perspectives, & Journals
Journals & Other Publications
Exploiting AI for Strategic Planning and Communication: How Extremists and Terrorist Groups exploit AI
Ardian Shajkovci, Michael Vandelune & Allison McDowell-Smith, Chapter contribution on AI, The Almesbar Studies and Research Center (in press, 2024).
“AI is not a technology used by extremist and terrorist actors in isolation; rather, it is an umbrella technology that augments more traditional, tried-and-true behaviours and tools already present in the extremist and terrorist toolbox. While the authors recognize the potential threats of generative AI and other advanced technological tools in the arsenal of extremist and terrorist organizations, they also stress that overemphasizing technology at the expense of addressing traditional recruitment and content dissemination methods may be misleading.“
Engagement with Radical Propaganda drives Cognitive Radicalization: An Analysis of a Right-Wing Online Ecosystem
Julius Culvert, Journal of Strategic Security (JSS), March 2024.
“Cognitive radicalization remains an issue for communities battling terrorism. Recent empirical investigations into the psycho-social processes involved with radicalization have revealed social exclusion, cognitive inflexibility, and perceived threats to an ingroup as significant predictors for one’s propensity to engage with radical content and commit to offline behaviors. This study investigates the utility of user engagement and the proxy effect on cognitive radicalization by examining users’ engagement with a radical-right online ecosystem. The study supported the assumption that content featuring outgroup prejudice would affect the cognitive radicalization process. Several results demonstrate the importance of user engagement in the process of radicalization. In this analysis, they support an engagement-dependent framework where individual posts carry higher radicalization likelihoods based on the amount of user engagement they receive. These findings have an implication for future research into a user’s behavioral trajectories, from viewing and engaging with content to joining a radical group or committing offline violence against their communities and perceived outgroups.”
Servant Leadership and Violent Extremism: An Evaluative Framework
Eric J. Russell & Ardian Shajkovci
Servant Leadership: Theory and Practice, Columbus State University, July 2023.
“The following article presents a conceptual servant leadership framework for evaluating preventing violent extremism (PVE) policies and programs. The purpose of the work was to discover how servant leadership could strengthen existing PVE evaluative strategies. This article stems from work being done in servant leadership, counterterrorism, and countering violent extremism at Nichols College and Utah Valley University. The authors used a secondary analysis of empirical and literary servant leadership and PVE works to develop the framework. The analysis revealed a relationship between servant leadership’s commitment to the growth of people and building community and the need for PVE to be about nurturing resilient individuals and communities. That relationship became the foundation for the work, allowing for a discussion of many different aspects of the two areas. The framework led to the development of a servant leadership evaluative framework to be used as part of an overall PVE evaluative toolkit.“
Listening to women defectors from al Shabaab: Strengthening gender-sensitive disengagement efforts in Somalia
Ardian Shajkovci, Abdirahman M. Rukaya, Amanda Garry, Allison McDowell-Smith & Mohamed Ahmed
South African Journal of International Affairs, Routledge, Francis & Taylor Online
“The primary focus of Somalia’s Defection Rehabilitation Programme and other disengagement efforts has been on male defectors. This study, given its specific focus on women associated with al Shabaab, serves to support a rationale for gender-sensitive rehabilitation and reintegration efforts following involvement with extremist and terrorist groups. The authors interviewed women defectors from al Shabaab, providing a rare glimpse into their experiences. As such, the research contributes towards developing a baseline for research on female ex-combatants or those affiliated with al Shabaab in general. Issues analysed include those of personal identity, the mechanics of recruitment, pathways out of extremism, and the prevalence of gender stereotypes blended with the need to provide for the long-term needs of women leaving al Shabaab. Future research should include larger samples of wives and other female family of al Shabaab members, as well as current female members of the group.”
Far-Right Violent Extremist Women: Threats and Security Considerations
Sarah Samuels and Ardian Shajkovci
Women & Criminal Justice, Taylor & Francis Online
“Far-right violent extremism is the most pressing form of domestic violent extremism (DVE) facing the United States. While there is a consensus that far-right violent extremism poses a genuine risk to the United States, the relevance of women within far-right violent extremism remains understated and under-researched. The misinformed perceptions about women and their propensities for violence must be acknowledged and rectified to ensure a proper analysis of the state of far-right violent extremism in the United States.”
Disinformation Studies: Perspectives from an Emerging Field, Correia, Jeronimo & Amaral (Eds.)
Capturing and Dissecting the Complexity of Production and Dissemination of Conspiracy Theories, Hate-Based Rhetoric, and Mis-and Disinformation Online
Ardian Shajkovci, Ramon Ruti, Matteo Gregori, Asli Altinbay, Amanda Garry and Allison McDowell-Smith
LabCom Book, Chapter Contribution on “Disinformation as an Emerging Field”
September 2022
Abstract
“Fringe independent websites and alternative social media platforms such as Telegram, Parler, and Bitchute have increasingly become major spreaders of mis-and disinformation, conspiracy theories, and hate-based rhetoric. These spaces have also become echo chambers that can largely influence online users seeking propaganda related to specific movements. The purpose of this chapter is to facilitate an initial discussion on the role of smaller and alternative social media platforms, as part of a wider media ecosystem engaged in constructing and communicating conspiracy theories, hate-based rhetoric, and mis-and disinformation. The authors will discuss and introduce innovative tools and methodologies in tracking and analyzing content online, as demonstrated through the case of QAnon conspiracy theory. Furthermore, given that the current political, popular and media conversation about regulating social media primarily focuses upon the role of Twitter, Facebook and to a lesser extent YouTube, the arguments presented by the authors herein suggest that such line of contention may be somewhat misplaced and misleading.”
Resumo
“Sites independentes marginais e plataformas alternativas de mídia social, como Telegram, Parler e Bitchute, tornaram-se cada vez mais grandes disseminadores de desinformação e desinformação, teorias da conspiração e retórica baseada no ódio. Esses espaços também se tornaram câmaras de eco que podem influenciar amplamente os usuários online que buscam propaganda relacionada a movimentos específicos. O objetivo deste capítulo é facilitar uma discussão inicial sobre o papel de plataformas de mídia social menores e alternativas, como parte de um ecossistema de mídia mais amplo engajado na construção e comunicação de teorias da conspiração, retórica baseada no ódio e desinformação e desinformação. Os autores discutirão e apresentarão ferramentas e metodologias inovadoras no rastreamento e análise de conteúdo online, conforme demonstrado através do caso da teoria da conspiração QAnon. Além disso, dado que o discurso atual sobre a regulação das mídias sociais concentra-se principalmente no papel do Twitter, Facebook e, em menor medida, YouTube, os argumentos apresentados pelos autores aqui sugerem que tal linha de contenção pode ser um tanto equivocada e equivocada. Além disso, dado que o discurso atual sobre a regulação das mídias sociais concentra-se principalmente no papel do Twitter, Facebook e, em menor medida, YouTube, os argumentos apresentados pelos autores aqui sugerem que tal linha de contenção pode ser um pouco equivocada e enganosa.”
Framing the Counterterrorism and Countering Violence Extremism Debate in Light of Current and Future Waves of Returnees from the Syrian Camps
Ardian Shajkovci, Allison McDowell-Smith, Amanda Garry and Mohamed Ahmed.
European Eye on Radicalization, October 2021
“All over the world, governments are struggling to formulate coherent policies, consistent with their national security, to deal with citizens who left to Syria and Iraq, often with their families, to become Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) in jihadist groups, notably the Islamic State (ISIS), and who now wish to return to their countries of origin. ”
The Prosecution Challenges of the Travelers to the Islamic State
Ardian Shajkovci and Allison McDowell-Smith
International Peace Institute (IPI) Global Observatory, June 2021
“Since the 2017 collapse of the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the Syrian Democratic Forces has retained custody of approximately 2,000 foreign terrorist fighters and close to 10,000 Islamic State militants. Despite the professed inability of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to assume long-term responsibility for the detainees, coupled with repeated requests by the United States, a majority of western governments remain reluctant or unwilling to repatriate them.”
US Extremism on Telegram: Fueling Disinformation, Conspiracy Theories, and Accelerationism
Samantha Walther and Andrew McCoy
Perspectives on Terrorism, April 2021
“Several alternative social media platforms have emerged in response to perceptions that mainstream platforms are censoring traditional conservative ideologies. However, many of these alternative social media platforms have evolved to be outlets for hate speech and violent extremism. This study examines hate-based channels on Telegram from a US perspective. While Telegram has often been studied in relation to ISIS, less is known about its usage by US extremist users and movements. The authors used OSINT and observational methods on a sample of 125 Telegram channels containing hate speech and violent extremist content from far-right and far-left perspectives. The authors hypothesized that there would be a greater and growing presence of far-right activity compared to far left activity due to current migration trends away from mainstream social media by the far-right. The authors also sought to observe the presence of disinformation campaigns, conspiracy theories, and accelerationism on Telegram. This study had four major findings: (1) the findings supported the hypothesis that more channels were host to far right dialogues, yet there were several far-left channels present, (2) 64.8% of the channels grew in size over a one week period, (3) 47 of the 125 channels were connected to well-known violent extremist movements or hate groups, and (4) QAnon and the COVID-19 pandemic were the most prominent sources of disinformation and conspiracy theories on Telegram. The findings of this study highlight that alternative social media platforms are a growing environment for a range of hateful ideologies and are aiding the spread of disinformation campaigns. This study concludes with a discussion on future strategies to combat the influence of the Internet on radicalization outcomes.”
Amanda Garry, Samantha Walther, Rukaya Mohamed, Ayan Mohammed
Journal for Deradicalization, March 2021
“This report demonstrates the overarching need for additional exploration and intervention of conspiracy-based radicalization as the QAnon conspiracy theory continues to grow. Strong pillars of belief among the QAnon movement, coupled with the spread of disinformation online, has exacerbated the familiarity and willingness to accept the rhetoric within mainstream media and culture. This report examines the evolution, ideologies, and paradigms associated with supporters of QAnon to better understand the most influential mechanisms of modern conspiracy-based radicalization. Utilizing a France-based digital disinformation platform known as Storyzy, the authors hypothesize that disinformation campaigns, coupled with the Internet and social media, has greatly enabled the unprecedented global effect of QAnon. The authors explored the potential of several survey methods to seek insights from QAnon followers on Gab and Telegram. Additionally, the authors discerned various implications of QAnon in regard to the limitations placed upon P/CVE efforts.”
Ardian Shajkovci and Allison McDowell-Smith
Al Mesbar Studies & Research Center, 2021
“The analysts gathered in this work examined United Nations efforts to “train the trainers” and studied the American experience post-9/11, both in terms of grand strategy and frontline tactics, as well as attempts at rehabilitating imams in religious colleges. The experiences of France, Belgium, and Germany are also presented from an interdisciplinary perspective; the training curriculum of trainers in Saudi Arabia is explored; and the unique Emirati model is extensively parsed for its implications in the realms of security and media. The book also delves into the Egyptian experience and its ramifications for other nations, such as Indonesia. Likewise, it touches upon the Iraqi experience with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), better known as Daesh, and its aftereffects. The Moroccan model is covered for its impact on European experiments.
The chapter contribution combines the psychological, social, and legal aspects of counterterrorism. It addresses current perspectives on introducing a federal criminal law concerning domestic terrorism in an effort to strengthen the law enforcement response. This takes into account the training efforts and counterterrorism experience in existing penal institutions, particularly of the last 20 years.”
UN Women, Europe and Central Asia, 2021
Ardian Shajkovci contribution to the manual alongside other UN Women staff and volunteers that have provided peer review and comments to the drafts including Alison Davidian, Anara Aitkurmanova, Cordelia Moore, Elaine Conkievich, Florence Scarlett Waller-Carr, Grace Escamilla, Iman Sayed Taha, Iris Bjorg Kristjansdottir, Natasha Lamoreux, Naureen Fink, Sarah Douglas, Umran Selin Avni and Valeria Vilardo.
ACTRI Reports
When (Online) Social Identity and Deindividuation Meet the Power of the Situation: A Telegram Study
Julie Papastamatelou, Allison McDowell-Smith & Philip G. Zimbardo
Ideologically motivated violence has increased worldwide in part due to a resurgence of far right and white supremacist groups. Such groups are gaining in popularity based on populist ideas and dissatisfaction with contentious socio-political issues and by leveraging the COVID-19 pandemic to propagate false narratives and conspiracy theories. Utilizing COVID-19 discourse as a framework of analysis, the current study aimed to offer a first-hand explanation on intensified intergroup phenomena, which can lead to violent outbreaks. The authors of the study applied a qualitative research design to examine factors fostering intergroup processes and the ways in which these processes may potentially lead to violence. Posts and chats from 45 Telegram channels and groups were collected and analyzed. Findings suggest factors enhancing intergroup processes are related to identification on patriotism grounds, ingroup identification and strong leadership, along with depersonalization through branding and bonding. Coupled with the power of the situation provided by the COVID-19 pandemic, deindividuation, and anonymity offered by the Internet, these factors can potentially lead to acts of violence. Recommendations include building strong information dissemination networks across academia, research institutes, policymakers, and law enforcement.
Combating Inherent or Adopted Terrorism Rhetoric, Mentalities, Attitudes & Radical Actions amongst Servicemembers within All Military Branches in the United States
Adriana Evans
The military culture, obligations, deployments, and interactions with American civilians versus foreign civilians when they are deployed are all valid components that may fuel group, individual, and lone wolf behavior linked to domestic terrorism characteristics. Whether these beliefs are founded in inherent or adopted belief systems, or from being surrounded by comrades or environmental pressures while deployed, the events of 9/11 and the January 6th, 2021, Capitol Hill attack revealed an unsettling pattern: radical servicemembers are having their actions tracked back to the rhetoric, cognitive validation, and subsequent violent actions that some military personnel act upon. All the while, radicalized personnel are subsisting in military-based ecosystems that are not always reducing extremist rhetoric. These environments often validate and empower individuals to join forces with like-minded military servicemembers, which can create radical sub-communities or lone wolves devoted to their causes.
Online Extremism: Political Trigger Events and Increased Far-Right Telegram Activity
Samantha Walther, Ardian Shajkovci, Amanda Garry & Allison McDowell-Smith
Some of the most open and liberal one like Far-right extremist movements have drastically risen in the United States, largely aided by social media. While social media can increase exposure to news and facilitate civil discussion, humans generally seek out and interact with like-minded individuals, a trend known as homophily. When processing extreme events and news, homophilic tendencies can perpetuate polarization and extreme political attitudes. This report seeks to document this trend in non-terroristic trigger events and their impact on extreme digital spaces. This report analyzed 7 non-terroristic trigger events and their immediate impact on the activity of 18 far-right Telegram channels. It is hypothesized that even non-terroristic political trigger events will cause both instant homophilic far-right activity increase in already polarized online environments, as well as prolonged and sustained group growth. The report found that across all 7 trigger events, far-right activity increased the day-of the event. The report also found that the average size of the channels increased from both September 2020 to February 2021 and again from February 2021 to May 2021. These findings give insight into the effects of offline events and how they can draw people into extreme online spaces and stimulate further far-right activity and indoctrination..
Human or Artificial? Disinformation and Propaganda Trends and Examples from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Ardian Shajkovci, Matteo Gregori & Allison McDowell-Smith
Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Digital Transformation Oleksandr Bornyakov characterized the “digital battlefield” as crucial in the country’s war against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine has too Russia’s efforts to spread propaganda across foreign and domestic media ramped up after the beginning of the conflict, and digital technologies are playing a key role in facilitating the flow of mis-and disinformation.
Freedom of Excess? The Risk and Rewards of Online Terrorist Censorship
Cooper Vardy
Some of the most open and liberal one like France and the United Kingdom—have refined the rules of the online sphere in order to protect against terrorism and insurgency. The present report seeks to explore the benefits and drawbacks of censoring violent extremist and terrorist content online.
Contemporary Far-Right Metaculture: Telegram and the Wider Trends of Transnational Discourse
Michael Vandelune
Considerable attention will be given to how the rise of far-right transnationalism has fostered informal alliance-making between far-right groups, and how these have led to the development of significant havens for far-right cross-border cooperation near contemporary day conflict zones, with a particular focus on those involving the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the ongoing War in Donbas waged between their interests. Included will be an attached case study that examines the prevalence of the aforementioned global struggle and transnational unity rhetoric via primary data collected on a wide range of far-right Telegram channels, providing preliminary evidence of this rhetoric’s prominence within both the movement’s mainstream and sub-ideological circles.
Far-Left Extremism in the United States: A New England Perspective
Teagan Hale
Recent incidents such as the 2021 United States Capitol attack, the Gretchen Whitmer kidnapping plot, and violent confrontations between civilians during the Kenosha Protests and Seattle Capitol Hill Autonomous Zones have illustrated how overlooked homegrown movements are posing significant threats to national security. Movements associated with far right-wing politics and extremism have justifiably dominated discussions around this emergent topic and have risen to the top of national security discourses, yet this limelight has overshadowed threats stemming from entities associated with far-left politics and extremism.
Far-Right Violent Extremist Targeting of Law Enforcement in the United States
Michael Danahy
Many of the contributing factors leading to extremism and terrorism have been exacerbated in recent years by both domestic and transnational events. While U.S. counterterrorism efforts have been largely focused on international terrorist groups, there has been a progressive resurgence of far-left and far-right violent extremism in the United States and Western Europe. This increasing threat has not only resulted in attacks on civilians but has targeted law enforcement as well.
Emma Scupp & Amanda Garry
This research will utilize Telegram channels and previous video propaganda research to analyze the existing body of far-right and militant jihadi extremist propaganda videos, featuring ISIS as a case study in the context of the latter. Findings will provide insight into the choices made by far-right and militant jihadi extremists when creating video propaganda by dissecting their techniques and overarching themes. This report will also feature a comprehensive review of material that seeks to synthesize far-right video propaganda by highlighting various elements and their associated impacts. By gaining a further understanding of extremist groups and their strategies, effective actions to counter, neutralize or reduce their influence can be developed.
The findings in this report can be juxtaposed to understand the strengths and weaknesses of each propaganda strategy, allowing researchers and practitioners to understand which areas require more focus and how to effectively dismantle their public relations framework to hinder future radicalization.
Teagan Hale
Amanda Garry et al.
Samantha Walther
ACTRI Perspectives
Anti-Narcotics policy Considerations following the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Kirsten Buckley
The recent withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan has elevated concerns over the potential increase of opium production in Afghanistan.
Cybersecurity Considerations Impacting the US Critical Infrastructure: An Overview
Sith Slaughter
Cybersecurity is one of the essential assets of everyday life. All the data that is within reach of Internet of Things (IoT) based devices is prized; the passwords that are stored on smartphones, the constant emails sent out with sensitive data, and connected appliances play an ever-growing role that affect people’s lives. Therefore, it is imperative to act against cyberattacks that are aimed at critical infrastructure to ensure that data remains safe and that it is not exposed.
Navigating Through the Fog of Politically Motivated Violence in the United States
Amanda Garry, Allison McDowell-Smith, Ardian Shajkovci
On May 25th, 2020, Minneapolis Police received a call from a local convenience store after George Floyd purchased cigarettes with a suspected counterfeit $20 bill. 2 Law enforcement arrived on scene, and shortly after, Floyd found himself pinned to the ground by multiple officers. After 8 minutes and 15 seconds on the ground, Floyd became unconscious and was pronounced dead at the scene. Bystanders recorded and posted videos to various social media platforms such as Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram.
The Imperative of
Acknowledging American
Women’s Role in Violent
Extremism and Terrorism
Teagan Hale
How do American women operate within violent domestic extremist communities and
contribute to their goals, and how do their roles threaten and challenge national security?
These questions have largely been understudied within extremism and terrorism studies. Most
current studies tend to overlook the American women’s contributions to domestic extremist
communities and fail to account for their potential and capacity to facilitate political violence.
Mainstream research has long excluded American women as objects of analysis, or as
potential extremists or terrorist. Furthermore, the greater scope of research is challenged by
the fact that women indeed serve as active agents of politically violent movements by their
own volition. This position is no longer tenable given that violent domestic extremist
communities “pose the most lethal and persistent terrorism-related threat to our country
today.” Effective strategies must seriously contend with threats stemming from American
women and consider their impact, lethality, and contributions with the same seriousness as
men. Understanding the security vulnerabilities created by women’s lack of consideration is
the first step in rectifying this concern.
Preparing for a Life After Prison: How Effective Intervention
Services Can Combat the Drivers of Violent Extremism
Samantha Medina
Prisons are places of vulnerability and have historically served as recruitment hubs for those
intending to spread their extremist ideologies amongst the vulnerable; they provide the ideal
environments to develop and spread radical ideology. Prison radicalization poses a persistent
threat yet has not been systematically addressed within the United States prisons. Since the
attacks on September 11, 2001, there have been several instances where individuals have
been radicalized behind bars. Compared to other countries, the U.S. remains behind in
deploying effective deradicalization and disengagement programs for inmates who foster
radical extremist views. With the current rise in violent extremism and the impending release
of those incarcerated for terrorism-related crimes, it is prudent that the U.S. develops
effective measures to combatting extremism behind bars.
Ayan Mohammed, Amanda Garry, Rukaya Mohamed, & Antoine Andary
The surface-level risk behind conspiracy theories stems from the sheer distribution of misinformation. However, their ability to translate into continuous violence creates many concerns for P/CVE practitioners. Varying spectrums and degrees of extremists tend to cling to conspiracy theories as a means to push their political agendas during times of uncertainty as well as acquire newfound support. The following research paper seeks to not only uncover common conspiracy theories leveraged by extremists, but also the manifestations and implications of such theories when coupled with violence.
Andrew McCoy & Amanda Garry
Violent extremist groups, their sympathizers, and adherents seek reaction and notoriety as they push their radical agendas through violence and continued indoctrination. Edicts, fatwas (Islamic religious edicts), manifestos and other orders are often deployed to promote suicide terrorism, the killing of innocents, and distort religious doctrines.
Foreign Actor Influence on Right-Wing Extremism in the United States: The Case of Russia
Elizabeth Bailey
The manifestations of right-wing violent extremism in the United States continue to exacerbate fear and uncertainty. Right-wing violent extremists exploit the dissemination of “fake news” and social media to push their ideological and political agenda. The modernization of technology and the internet in particular has served as a catalyst for how violent extremists communicate and influence each other.
Antoine Andary & Amanda Garry
The threat of violent extremism and terrorism remains entrenched within European society, challenging its political, economic, and social agenda. Militant jihadi and right-wing extremist activities in Belgium have created an overarching need for law enforcement intervention. In this engaging perspective, ACTRI Research Fellows Antoine Andary and Amanda Garry explore the manifestations, motivations, and mitigating factors at play for Belgian law enforcement, and the consequences of their actions as they relate to an increasing threat of violent extremist activity and indoctrination in the area.
Pending Research
